Investigation Says UAE's Bin Zayed Warned Netanyahu of Hamas 'Major Event' Weeks Before October 7

A 45-minute phone call in late September 2023, according to an investigation published by Haaretz this week, is where Benjamin Netanyahu first heard that Hamas was preparing something large. The caller was UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed. The investigation, drawn from the forthcoming book Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment by Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval, says Netanyahu dismissed the warning and did not pass it to Israel's military or security leadership.

The account rests on three senior foreign sources familiar with the call's contents, plus a Gaza-born adviser to bin Zayed who says he was present for it.

"The emir explained that, in his assessment, Sinwar was preparing for a major event," the adviser said. "He told Netanyahu that Israel should be ready. Concurrently, he recommended trying to find an economic solution for the Strip and calming the West Bank to prevent escalation."

Where the warning came from

According to the investigation, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had grown frustrated after Netanyahu repeatedly delayed a committee meant to approve a prisoner exchange, part of monthslong talks over easing the Gaza blockade and freeing four Israelis held since 2014-2015. In early September 2023, Sinwar reportedly told a Fatah intermediary known to Israeli intelligence as "coal eyes" to expect an "earthquake." Sources have told Middle East Eye that intermediary was Sufyan Abu Zayda, a former Palestinian Authority prisoners' affairs minister and Fatah Revolutionary Council member from Jabalia, described in the reporting as trusted by both Hamas and Shin Bet.

At a follow-up meeting in mid-September, Sinwar's message reportedly sharpened: "Convey a message to them that I am preparing the mother of all surprises. A terrifying operation. Something extraordinary." That warning, the investigation says, reached both Israeli officials and bin Zayed, and helped prompt the UAE president's call to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, according to the account, reassured bin Zayed that Israel was prepared for any scenario and told him he believed Hamas's focus was the West Bank, not Gaza.

A second, separately reported warning

The UAE account is not the only one. Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth has previously reported that then-Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel warned Netanyahu days before the attack of "something unusual, a terrifying operation." Netanyahu's reported reply: "In Gaza, we are in the picture, we are in control. Our problem is with the West Bank, and that's where we are also diverting forces."

Netanyahu has denied the call with bin Zayed took place at all and denies receiving any such warning. Occupation Watch has found no independent confirmation from Israeli security officials of either call's contents; both remain disputed accounts sourced to intermediaries and unnamed foreign officials.

The same investigation reports that in the immediate aftermath of October 7, Hamas offered to release all civilian captives without conditions, an offer Israeli officials rejected. That claim, like the warning calls, is drawn from the book's sourcing and has not been independently corroborated.